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Learning Resources for Chapter 16

Bier, Vicki, 2004, “Should the Model for Security Be Game Theory Rather Than Reliability Theory?” 4th International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Reliability: Methodology and Practice, June 21-25, 2004, Santa Fe, NM.

Bodily, Samuel, 1992, “Introduction: The Practice of Decision and Risk Analysis,” Interfaces, 22:6, November/December, pp. 1-4.

Bowles, John B., "The New SAE FMECA Standard," 1998 Proceedings of the Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, pp. 48-53.

Buckshaw, D. L., Parnell, G. S., Unkenholz, W. L., Parks, D. L., Wallner, J. M. and Saydjari, O. S.,  “Mission Oriented Risk and Design Analysis of Critical Information Systems”, Technical Report 2004-03, Innovative Decisions Inc.,  August 2004

Buede, Dennis M., 2009, 2nd Ed, The Engineering Design of Systems: Models and Methods. Wiley & Sons.

CAIB (Columbia Accident Investigation Board), NASA, Washington, DC, August 2003.

Cohen, Fred, 1997, “Information System Attacks: A Preliminary Classification Scheme”, Computer & Security, Vol. 16, No. 1, 1997, pp. 29-46.

Davison, Mark and Vantine, William, 1998, "Understanding Risk Management: A Review of the Literature and Industry Practice," European Space Agency Risk Management Workshop, ESTEC, March 30- April 2, pp. 253-256.

Department of Homeland Security (DHS), 2003, Office of Domestic Preparedness: Special Needs Jurisdiction Toolkit.

Department of Homeland Security (DHS), 2010, DHS Risk Lexicon.

Dillon, R.L. and Tinsley, C.H. “How near-misses influence decision making under risk:  A missed opportunity for learning”, Management Science, Vol. 54, No. 8, August 2008, pp. 1425-1440.

Doherty, M.E., Chadwick, R., Garavan, H., Barr, D., and Mynatt, C.R., 1996, “On people’s understanding of the diagnostic implications of probabilistic data,” Memory and Cognition, 24, 644-654.

Dresher, M., 1961, Games of Strategy, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

Engelbrecht, J. A., Jr., Bivins, R. L., Condray, P. M., Fecteau, M. D., Geiss II, J. P., Smith, K. C., “Alternate Futures for 2025:  Security Planning to Avoid Surprise,” Air University Press, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama, April 1996

Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2004, Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) Of Hazard Mitigation Projects Appendix 1 To The Riverine Flood - Full Data Module User's Guide For Software Version 5.2.3,

Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2004, Hazard List

Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2004, Terrorism

Frank, Michael, 1998, A Survey of Risk Assessment Methods from the Nuclear, Chemical, and Aerospace Industries for Applicability to the Privatized Vitrification of Hanford Tank Wastes, Report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, August.

General Accounting Office (GAO), February 2003, Critical Infrastructure Protection, Challenges for Selected Agencies and Industry Sectors, Washington, DC, GAO-03-233.

Groen, F., Smidts, C., Mosleh, A., and Swaminathan, S., 2002, “QRAS: Quantitative Risk Assessment System”, Proceedings of RAMS 2002, Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium.

Haimes, Y. Y., 1998, Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management. John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY.

Henley, E.J. and Kumamoto, H., 1992, Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Reliability Engineering, Design, and Analysis, IEEE Press: New York.

Homeland Security: Information Sharing Responsibilities, Challenges, and Key Management Issues. GAO-03-1165T, Government Accounting Office, September 17, 2003 

Jackson, J. A., Parnell, G. S., Jones, B. L., Lehmkuhl, L.J., Conley, H., and Andrew, J.,  "Air Force 2025 Operational Analysis," Military Operations Research, 1997, Vol 3, No 4, pp. 5-21

Joint Chiefs of Staff: Department of Defense, Joint Publication 3-13, Joint doctrine for Information Operations, Washington: Pentagon, 1998.

Kaplan, S., 1997, “The Words of Risk Analysis.” Risk Analysis, Vol. 17, No. 4.

Kaplan, S., and Garrick, B. J., 1981, “On the Quantitative Definition of Risk,” Risk Analysis, 1981, Vol. 1, No. 1, 11- 27. 

Keeney, Ralph, 1982, “Decision Analysis: An Overview,” Operations Research, 30:5 September/October, pp. 803-838.

Keeney, R. L., Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992.

Keeney, R. L.and H. Raiffa, Decision Making with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs, Wiley, NY, 1976.

Kirkwood, Craig W., 1997, Strategic Decision Making: Multiobjective Decision Analysis with Spreadsheets, Belmont, California: Duxbury Press.

Lindell, M.K. and Perry, R.W., 1992, Behavioral Foundations of Community Emergency Planning, Hemisphere Publishing Corporation, Washington, DC.

Merrick, J. and Parnell, G., A Comparative Analysis of PRA and Intelligent Adversary Methods for Counterterrorism Risk Management, Risk Analysis, Vol 31, No 9, 2011, pp. 1488-1510.

Mileti, Dennis S. and O'Brien, Paul W. 1992, "Warnings During Disaster: Normalizing Communicated Risk" Societal Problems, 39:1, February, pp. 40-57.

Mileti, Dennis S., 1999, Disasters By Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States, Jospeh Henry Press: Washington, D.C. 

Modarres, M., 1993, What Every Engineer Should Know About Reliability and Risk Analysis, Marcel Dekker, Inc.: New York.

Mosleh, Ali, 1993, Procedure For Analysis Of Common-Cause Failures In Probabilistic Safety Analysis, Washington D.C.: Division of Safety Issue Resolution, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

National Research Council. Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change. Washington,DC: National Academies Press, 2008.

Onodera, Katsushige, 1997, Effective Techniques of FMEA at Each Life-Cycle Stage. In 1997 Proceedings of the Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, pp. 50-56.

Parnell GS, Smith CM, Moxley FI. Intelligent adversary risk analysis: A bioterrorism risk management model. Risk Analysis,2010; 30(1):32–48.

Parnell, G., Driscoll, P., & Henderson, D. (Eds.). 2011, Decision-Making in System Engineering and Management (2nd ed.). New York: Wiley & Sons.

Paté-Cornell, M.E., 1996, "Uncertainties in Risk Analysis: Six Levels of Treatment", Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 54:  95-111.

Paté-Cornell, M.E., Dillon, R.L., and Guikema, S.D., 2004, “On the Limitations of Redundancies in the Improvement of System Reliability”, accepted in Risk Analysis, in print.

Paté-Cornell, M.E. and Dillon, Robin L., 2001, “Probabilistic Risk Analysis for the NASA Space Shuttle: A Brief History and Current Work,” Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 74, No. 3, pp. 345-352. 

Paté-Cornell, M. E. and Fischbeck, P. S., 1994, “Risk Management for the Tiles of the Space Shuttle,” Interfaces, 24: 64-86

Paté-Cornell, M.E. and Guikema, S.D., 2002, “Probabilistic Modeling of Terrorist Threats: a Systems Analysis Approach to Setting Priorities Among Countermeasures,” Military Operations Research, Vol. 7, No 4.

National Infrastructure Protection Center (NIPC), 2002, “Risk Management: An Essential Guide to Protecting Critical Infrastructure”, November 2002, Washington DC.

Software Engineering Institute (SEI), 1996, Continuous Risk Management Guidebook, Carnegie Mellon University.

Tversky, A., Kahneman D., 1974, Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science. 185(4157): 1124-1131.

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), 1975, Reactor Safety Study:  Assessment of Accident Risk in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Plants, WASH-1400 (NUREG-75/014). Washington, D.C.: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), 1983, PRA Procedures Guide, NUREG/CR-2300.  Washington D.C.: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), 1991, Procedural and Submittal Guidance for the Individual Plant Examination of External Events (IPEEE) for Severe Accident Vulnerabilities, Final Report, Washington, D.C.

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), 1996, A Technique For Human Error Analysis (Atheana). Washington, D.C.: Division of Systems Technology, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research.

Vesely, W.E., 1981, Fault Tree Handbook,  Washington  D.C.: Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research.

Wason, P.C., 1960, “On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task”, Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 12, 129-140.

Wason, P.C., 1968, “Reasoning about a rule”, Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 20, 273-281.

Weinstein, N.D., 1987, Taking Care: Understanding and Encouraging Self-Protective Behavior, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

Wenger, Dennis E.,  Dykes, James D.,  Sebok, Thomas D., and Neff, Joan L., 1975, "It's a Matter of Myths: An Empirical Examination of Individual Insight Into Disaster Response," Mass Emergencies, Vol 1, pp. 33-46.